BN-PN 'Malay unity' wave coming, and Harapan is in danger

N SEMBILAN POLLS | The results of the Negeri Sembilan election are a strong indicator that Malay voters who previously voted BN or Perikatan Nasional in the past five years are sticking with their vote.

By consolidating the Malay vote, BN and PN were able to bag 25 seats for a two-thirds majority in Negeri Sembilan, while Pakatan Harapan was relegated to 11 seats with no Malay assemblypersons on its side.

Speaking to Malaysiakini briefly after the polls, Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said the results showed an almost perfect vote transferability between BN and PN - which campaigned on a Malay unity agenda.

International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political scientist Syaza Shukri said the voting results showed that Malays who backed BN and PN were highly motivated to cast their ballots this time around.

"We always think that when turnout is high it is due to enthusiasm by the opposition to create change.

"And the situation today is that Harapan is seen as the incumbent (in state and federal) so the narrative of change against Harapan has successfully brought out Malay voters who want to defeat Harapan, especially DAP, and be the ones to bring back the 'Malay leadership'," she said.

For vote share analysis, Malaysiakini will be comparing it with the 15th general election, which is the last time all three major coalitions contested against each other in all constituencies in Negeri Sembilan, whereas Harapan and BN were partners and shared votes in the last state election.

Based on this, Harapan's vote share in Negeri Sembilan declined from 44.9 percent in GE15, to 40.2 percent in the Aug 1 election.

BN and PN's combined vote share, meanwhile, increased from 54.2 percent in GE15 to 56 percent. Bersatu - which contested against PN - bagged 2.6 percent of votes.

Meanwhile, total turnout for the Negeri Sembilan state election was 72.6 percent - 4.3 percentage points higher than the 2023 state polls and 5.9 percentage points lower than GE15.

Flipped seats

The consistency of BN and PN voters can be further observed in the results for five state seats that Malaysiakini forecast would be flipped from Harapan.

These seats, including DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke's constituency Chennah, had a combined vote share of more than 50 percent during the 15th general election - which was sustained in the Aug 1 election.

In fact, the vote share from yesterday's round of voting was comparable within a few percentage points with how constituents voted at the Parliament level during GE15

In Chennah, the turnout was nine percentage points higher than in the 2023 state election at 74.6 percent, indicating a strong Chinese turnout to defend Loke.

However, the outcome appeared to boil down to demographics, and the increase in bumiputera voters in the constituency allowed MCA - on the back of Malay votes - to eke out a win with a slim 688-vote majority.

Additionally, BN was also able to flip Repah, a constituency where Harapan managed to bag 58 percent of votes during the 15th general election.

Snap GE?

The victory in Repah is believed to be a combination of lower turnout among Chinese voters who vote for Harapan, as well as a possible swing of some Indian voters to BN.

It's also an indicator that if BN and PN's partnership were to continue, any drop in support or turnout among non-Malays and progressive Malays who previously voted Harapan could amplify the damage suffered.

This is a vote base that is increasingly disenchanted by Harapan and its perceived abandonment of reformist ideals, although communal fears may motivate some to keep voting for the coalition.

In such a scenario, Harapan is also expected to lose significant ground at the Parliament level and in states such as Malacca, Perak, Kedah, Pahang, and even Penang.

BN chairperson Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has already signalled that they intend to continue cooperating with PN in the upcoming Malacca state election.

Expectations are also high that they may force Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's hand for a snap general election.

Reporting by Zikri Kamarulzaman, Koh Jun Lin, and Zarrah Morden

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